Space exploration is one of the things that I am most passionate about in this life. I guess that my interest in the subject began when I was in Kindergarten. I remember being 5 or 6 years old and spending a lot of time looking through a copy of National Geographic that my parents had, which featured pictures of the Apollo Moon Landings. That magazine also came with a tear-out record that I played over and over again on our old vinyl record-player. The recording was of Mission-Control talking with the Apollo 11 crew as they made the first lunar landing. So, from a VERY young age, I could quote Neil Armstrong’s famous words… ” That’s one small step for Man, One Giant Leap for Mankind”. My interest in manned space exploration only grew from there, as I spent the next few years of my life watching the original Star-Trek episodes on our old black and white TV. Captain Kirk, Mr. Spock, Dr. McCoy, Scotty and the whole gang would fly around the galaxy at Warp Factor Nine, having interesting adventures, “encountering new life and new civilizations”, meeting hot alien chicks, and going”boldly where no man had gone before!” Spock would calculate the crew’s curent odds of survival to the 8th decimal point, Scotty would save the Enterprise from a warp-core breach every week ( usually with about ten seconds left to spare ), and Dr. McCoy would say “Dammit Jim, I’m a doctor, not a fill-in-the-blank-with-your-occupation-of-choice…” Those were the good ol’ days… when not only were we taking our first bold steps as a species out into the “final frontier” in the REAL world, but space travel was also being semi-plausibly portrayed on TV shows like Star Trek as a fairly routine, and perfectly normal activity in the not-so-distant future. NOTHING seemed impossible in those days. For a young boy with a typical young boy’s infatuation with exploring new things, NASA’s Apollo program was absolutely as exciting as could possibly be. I mean, what an incredible concept… to actually fly up to the MOON and walk around up there! Alan Shepard even played GOLF up there! The Apollo 15,16 and 17 astronauts even brought a car with them and drove it around up on the moon! I just assumed- as did many of my generation- that the Apollo program was only the very BEGINNING of a “grand age” of space exploration that I was going to have the PRIVILEGE of living in. I felt VERY fortunate to be born into such times, and I gazed ahead in the days of my youth, to a future brimming with limitless possibilities- mars landings, moon bases, warp-drive capability etc…etc…
Alas, dreams die hard sometimes. By the time I got my hands on that issue of National Geographic, the Apollo program had already been canceled by the government as a waste of money that the public was already growing bored with. On December 14th, 1972, Gene Cernan ( commander of Apollo 17 ) climbed up the ladder of his LEM ( Lunar Excursion Module) and headed back to earth. Humans haven’t left Earth-orbit since. It’s now been 38 years since Neil Armstrong made his “one small step for man”, and for a generation of dreamers who really, really believed that mankind’s destiny lay in the heavens, the intervening decades have been a cruel disappointment. You see, for many of us, Apollo wasn’t just about going to the moon and beating the Russians- it was an expression of hope for all of humanity. It was a foreshadowing of human POSSIBILITIES- a glimpse at what our species COULD be and do! And those old Star Trek episodes weren’t ( entirely ) about William Shatner’s hammy acting and the silly paper-mache sets- it was all part of an optimistic VISION of a human future wherein we set aside our differences as a species, and reach out to the heavens to achieve what we are capable-of, instead of blowing ourselves to kingdom come with weapons of mass destruction. The dreams, the hopes, and the best qualities of a whole generation were captured by the pioneering spirit of those times. The imagination of a nation, and of a world, was sparked and captivated by WHAT COULD BE!… THAT was the true spirit of Apollo, and THAT is what lives on in me, and a lot of other people out there who watch with dismay as NASA has devolved from being the bold, pioneering vangaurd of an entire generation’s aspirations, into a sad, rudderless, bloated, bureaucratic monstrosity with low aspirations and even lower achievements.
In the 35 years since the final Apollo mission, the United States, Russia, ESA ( European Space Agency) , JAXA, and other would-be space-faring nations have spent hundreds of billions of dollars on manned space-flight, and have almost NOTHING to show for it except a lot of pointless space shuttle missions to mere Earth orbit, and the on-going, decade-long assembly of an orbiting flop-house that doesn’t seem to have much purpose. In-orbit construction on the ISS began in 1998, and is expected to be completed in 2010. The life-expectancy of many of the station’s original station components expires sometime in 2016, at which point NASA will have to either have to invest tens of billions of dollars in refurbishing it, or de-orbit it and allow 14 years of work to burn up in the atmosphere. THIS is the the opus-magnus of NASA for the entire post-Apollo era? THIS, is the final result of our nation’s four-decade, hundred-billion dollar investment in manned space exploration? Don’t get me wrong… I don’t want to denigrate ALL of NASA’s achievements in space over the last 35 years- there HAVE been some good things accomplished. GPS and communications satellites come to mind. Rovers have sent back amazing HDTV-quality video of the surface of Mars, and many un-manned deep-space probes have been sent flying all over the solar system in the years since Apollo, which have yielded amazing discoveries, sent back terabytes of valuable data, and vastly increased our knowledge of our solar-system. Also, The Hubble Space Telescope was ( and still is ) the crown jewel of all our efforts in the field of un-manned space exploration. The pictures we got back from HST are probably the most mind-boggling images ever seen by human eyes. But while unmanned exploration has some great achievements to point to, the manned-exploration side of things has been a miserable, pathetic failure, and a great disappointment to our country and to the world, for a long time now. NASA’s two primary undertakings of the last 30 years have been the Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station. And neither one of these programs has even remotely come close to surpassing Apollo, in terms of historical significance or in terms of sparking public interest.
The bold pioneers- the “steely-eyed missile-men”- of the 60’s and 70’s were able to land men on the moon with archaic technology and a flight computer that had less computing power than your average modern wristwatch. NASA’s activities today focus on the Space Shuttle and the ISS. Near as I can tell, the Space Shuttle exists now for little other purpose than to give us a way to get to the ISS, and The ISS apparently exists for little other purpose than to give the shuttle someplace to go to. So we launch our insanely-overpriced shuttle missions up to Earth-orbit, putter around for a while in our insanely-overpriced, orbiting tin-can, and then fly home. What’s the point? I think it’s no wonder that so many people now think that Space Exploration is just a colossal waste of time, and that the money could be better spent here on Earth. I disagree, as to that sweeping characterization, but I certainly can see where that attitude comes from, and I certainly don’t think that NASA has been good stewards of the national wealth it has been entrusted with. Certainly, there is nothing in what we are currently doing in the area of manned space exploration to capture the spirit and imagination of a new generation. Nothing bold. Nothing audacious. Nothing inspired. Nothing worthy of public interest and attention. I think that a humorous article from one of my favorite on-line newspapers, ” The Onion”, accurately captures the essence of the frustration that so many people now have with NASA’s pointless and wasteful activities in space these days. For a good laugh please click here….
NASA ANNOUNCES PLAN TO LAUNCH $700 MILLION INTO SPACE:
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/47977
Sadly, the FUTURE that NASA, the bureaucrats, and the politicians have mapped-out for the next 30 years or so looks about as pointless and stupid as the LAST 30 years have been. The current plan du jour is to spend the next few years spending tens of billions of dollars finishing the ISS ( by which time it will be obsolete and in need of major refurbishment or abandonment ). THEN, we are to embark on a decade-long, zillion-dollar quest to RETURN TO THE MOON, and THEN to build insanely-expensive permanent bases there that will be regularly re-supplied and re-staffed with even MORE insanely-priced moon-shots. In other words, NASA’s grand vision is ( IF everything goes to plan) to put us, in the year 2018, right back where APOLLO 11 put us FIFTY YEARS AGO. From there, the moon is supposed to act as a “stepping-stone” to Mars and ANOTHER multi-decade, multi-zillion dollar NASA extravaganza to get there.
Look, it’s time to face reality here- about NASA, and about the course that manned space exploration in general is currently on. We’ve lost our way. The original NASA was built on the shoulders of committed visionaries like Robert Goddard, Wernher Von Braun, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, and Gene Kranz. It was an organization that was basically formed to give these dreamers,these explorers, these brave pioneers, a MEANS by which to give shape to their aspirations. The current NASA is a government bureaucracy staffed with government workers who function, aspire, plan, and behave as all government bureaucracies do- inefficiently, slowly, wastefully, and in plodding, drudgerous, safe, un-inspired fashion. It’s a different culture now, with different attitudes, and different motivations. The CURRENT bunch is simply not cut from the same cloth as the original NASA guys, and I honestly believe now- when I look at NASA’s track record of uninspired mediocrity and waste over the past few decades, and when I look at their truly pathetic and unrealistic plans for the next few decades- that they are fundamentally incapable on a basic INSTITUTIONAL level, of achieving and implementing the next steps that humanity needs to take in the area of Human Space Exploration. If the optimistic vision of a human destiny in space- the kind of vision held by people like Gene Roddenberry, Carl Sagan, Robert Zubrin, and Buzz Aldrin- is ever going to realistically come to pass, we are going to have to find another way to get there I think. We are going to need a new plan, new leadership, new goals, a new mission, a new paradigm, and a new business model. I believe we should honor NASA for it’s past achievements, but when you consider the insane amounts of money that they have basically thrown down pointless rat-holes over the past few decades and their plans to throw even MORE money down the same rat-holes in the future, it is becoming increasingly clear that the whole concept of NASA- as it’s currently organized- is becoming a deteriorating scenario of diminishing returns on our national investment.
We need a totally new paradigm for human space exploration if we are ever going to achieve what we are capable-of, as a nation, and as a species. That’s what it comes down-to. My thoughts on how we can realistically get to that place we are trying to get-to, will comprise the majority of the rest of this essay.
A couple of weeks ago, I went to go see “In the Shadow of the Moon”- a limited-release documentary comprised of interviews with the original Apollo astronauts, and never-before-seen footage from the NASA archives. If anybody else out there is feeling as depressed as I am about the current state of NASA, and about the state of manned space exploration on general, do yourself a favor and go see this movie. ( Don’t worry about finding a seat. Public interest in the space program is at a low ebb, so it was me and about six other people watching this movie on a Saturday night, in a city with a population of about 1 million. ) The documentary was absolutely inspirational. I left the theatre with renewed hope, renewed pride, and a renewed prayer for the return of the TRUE spirit of Apollo to our nation. This movie reminded me of why I became interested in manned space exploration in the first place, and reminded me of the POSSIBILITIES that once inspired my generation. We dont need to settle for this pathetic state of affairs! We can do more, and we deserve better! At this point, I think that things have gone so far astray at NASA that we should just start over with a clean sheet of paper.
First of all, lets start with some basic facts….We don’t even have a realistic vision of what we are even trying to accomplish in space, much less a serious plan for getting us there! Let’s start with a VISION, shall we? It seems to me that the critical component of ANY long-term sustainable human presence in space is that the people who are PAYING for it have to see a REASON to support it. There has to be something in what NASA is doing to inspire us- to capture our interest- and to let us live out our dreams through their bold and audacious plans. “Hello, McFly!”, we’ve already BEEN to the moon! A hundred-billion dollar, multi-decade “vision” to return to the moon is the stupidest thing I have ever heard of. There is no possibility of anybody caring about this moronic waste of time, much less any chance of anybody being inspired by it! And after that, why are we building “bases” there? Bases that are supposed to be continually staffed via endless, insanely-expensive missions like we currently use to restaff and resupply the ISS?… What is the purpose? Why would we do such a thing? NASA should be smacked in the head repeatedly with a dead waterlogged rat for adopting this monstrosity as it’s mission-plan for the next couple of decades. And WHY is the moon a necessary “stepping-stone” to Mars any more than the ISS was a necessary “stepping stone”? That simple question is the 800lb gorilla sitting on the living room couch isn’t it? USA Today said as much in an editorial, that captures very well, I think, the absurdity of NASA’s future mission plans…
USA Today Editorial:NASA, The Costly Frontier:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2006-12-05-edit_x.htm
To quote briefly from the article, ” On a practical level, this project raises a number of obvious questions. Why go back to the moon? Why build what is partially rationalized as a base camp for an eventual trip to Mars in the gravitational sink hole of a planetoid? Where’s the scientific reward that would justify such an expense? “. So at least I am not the only person asking impertinent questions about NASA’s plans for the next few decades… Just a thought, but instead of going to the moon again, why don’t we at least consider trying to do something we HAVEN’T done before, that MIGHT at least stand a chance of capturing the public’s interest for a change-ie. a manned mission to MARS. I’m willing to bet that when an astronaut climbs down a ladder, and says something brilliant as he ( or she ) puts their boot down onto the martian soil for the first time, that there will be a few people tuning in to see that! So… Step ONE of a much-needed complete re-vamp of NASA’s mission plans going forward would be to jettison this whole moon-base stupidity, and get on with something that has a realistic hope of rekindling public support and interest in the space program.
Step TWO, is to have a realistic, straightforward plan of getting to the new goal. We cannot afford to waste hundreds of billions of dollars re-inventing the wheel, and we DON’T need a bunch of intermediate steps and exotic new technologies to get to Mars. The Apollo-era heavy-throw Saturn V booster had everything we needed to put the peices required to get to Mars into orbit. ( As an aside, I’ve seen one of these beasts in person. They’ve got one laying on it’s side in a hanger at Johnson Space Center in Houston. It’s open to public viewing, and I would rank it highly among the most amazing things I have ever seen in this life. Trust me, if you have a chance to go to Houston for any reason, make time to go see the Saturn V. ) It’s not that difficult… you throw up two or three components into orbit with a few Saturns, you do a quick orbital rendezvous ala’ Gemeni and Apollo, you light the damned rockets, and you head to Mars. We have NEVER needed the intermediate steps of moon bases, international space-stations, space-shuttles, orbital assembly of “Battlestar-Galactica”-type ships, nuclear-thermal propulsion, and warp-drive capability to get to mars. All we need is some leadership! We could have been to Mars 20 years ago with Apollo era technology, and if we committed ourselves to it today, we could be there in 10 years or less. If we cast aside all of NASA’s useless, intermediate steps and pre-conditions, and instead adopted something like Robert Zubrin’s “Mars Direct” approach ( see Links at the end of this essay ), we could get there NOW, not 50 years from now!
Let me tell you something that I have learned in the corporate world from real-life experience- a commonly used strategy to avoid doing something hard that really does need to be done, is to commission a bunch of “studies” of the problem. That alone can take years. THEN, you make sure that your “studies”‘ have conclusions that recommend a bunch of pre-conditions and intermediate steps that would have to be to be fulfilled prior to actually addressing the primary task.Then you make the process of fulfilling the study’s recommendations for intermediate steps, so time-consuming and onerous, that the hoped-to-be-avoided course of action can never actually come about- at least not during a manager’s time there, and THAT’S what really matters. I have PERSONALLY witnessed this variety of corporate-management-kung-fu in action. I’ll give you a real-life example… At my own company, we own many buildings. We have a problem with leaking flashing, and a multitude of “gaps” in many of our building’s exterior surfaces ( some of them so wide you can stick your whole hand in there ). There are gaps between the siding, the stucco and the wood- which allows rain and snow to just run freely into the walls and to cause widespread mold and drywall damage. The straightforward solution would be to get a bunch of guys with caulking guns to come out and seal the gaps- which I once “boldly” suggested in a memo. But my company has managed to largely ignore the problem and avoid spending the money, by insisting instead, that I generate a spread-sheet first, which LISTS each and every crack AND correlates those cracks to SPECIFIC areas of interior water-damage. There are literally thousands of cracks, and many, many hundreds of instances of interior water damage. If I did nothing else but work on crack-detail spreadsheets for the next three years ( I have no time for it whatsoever ) , I MIGHT be able to satisfy the pre-conditions for taking actual steps to solve the problem. But they know that I don’t have the time, and so the can gets kicked on down the road for ANOTHER few years, ( or at least until the million-dollar toxic-mold lawsuits start flying). NASA is doing EXACTLY the same thing. They don’t want to undertake anything bold, risky, dangerous, or uncertain. What government bureaucrat DOES want to be responsible for something with a significant potential for catastrophic failure? So instead, they commission a bunch of studies and reports which predictably conclude that before we do anything crazy ( like doing something we haven’t done before ), we should FIRST finish the ISS, repeat the entire Apollo program, build a bunch of moon bases, develop nuclear thermal propulsion etc. , etc… NASA has now set so many pre-conditions and intermediate steps that have to occur before we leave orbit and head for Mars, that it will take many decades, and trillions of dollars before that day ever arrives- if it ever does arrive . By THAT time, the current crop of NASA managers will be safely retired on their government pensions. And that’s all that really matters here. NASA is also well aware of the budgetary crisis our nation faces in next few decades. The chickens of all of our multi-generational, unfunded , ponzi-scheme entitlement programs are going to be coming home to roost when the baby-boomers retire soon. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the Prescription Drug Benefit ( not to mention interest on the growing national debt, and the cost of rapidly-escalating military commitments around the world ) are going to basically bankrupt the next generation of Americans. There is a realistic limit to what NASA can expect funding-wise in the years to come, and they know that the money is going to run out LONG before all of their intermediate pre-conditions for a Mars Mission are met. They know that they will get a lot of totally-wasted funding in the meantime to keep everybody on the gravy-train, but at least under their plan, they will get that funding without ever having to realistically deliver anything resembling a mission to Mars. That’s the sad and honest truth folks. So that’s what I think of Nasa’s “vision” and of their so-called “plans” for the next several decades. I think it’s a complete crock of bullshit.
So what’s the alternative? Well, as I have already suggested, Step ONE would be to get a realistic vision, and Step Two would be to get a realistic road-map to get there. The best that I could hope for for NASA, would be that somebody sensible becomes president and simply kicks the 800lb gorilla off the living room couch and says- ” Look, this isn’t happening. You guys go back to the drawing-board, and come back with a ten-year-plan to get us to Mars that doesn’t involve moon bases. ” Furthermore, rather than investing another fifty-billion bucks on the ISS before we de-orbit it into the atmosphere, why not save the money and time and de-orbit the damned thing now? Instead of pursuing this folly to it’s ultimate pointless and wasteful conclusion, why don’t we stop throwing good money after bad, and call it a day shall we? And while we’re at it, let’s save ANOTHER twenty-billion bucks by not waiting until 2010 to retire the shuttle fleet. If I were president, I’d hand the keys to the ISS to Russia today and say “good luck comrade”. They would probably turn a profit on the thing by selling tickets to space-tourists. They need the money, so I say God Bless em’. I’d approve one more shuttle mission to service Hubble, and then I would send the shuttles to the Smithsonian.
The shuttle was supposed to be a cheap, safe, reliable, re-usable system capable of quick-turnaround times and easy, routine,weekly, launches to and from Earth orbit that would radically lower the cost per-pound of mass-to-orbit. It wasn’t ANY of those things. It was a lemon from the start, and a totally bad idea from the get-go. ( Anytime you spend 50 billion bucks on a peice of equipment and you have to use the phrase ” the tiles fell off”, you pretty much know youv’e got problems.) We’ve wasted the time and treasure of an entire generation puttering around in earth-orbit, and the sooner we put this sad era behind us, the better. I admit, I DO like the next-generation CEV ( Crew Exploration Vehicle ) AKA “Orion”, and the “Ares” heavy-throw Saturn-type booster that NASA is developing as a successor to the shuttle system, but I would change two things. I would immediately divert all ISS and Shuttle funding to a crash -program to get these new systems operational pronto. I would also insist on developing Orion and Ares within the architecture of a near-term, Mars-focused mission plan. No moon bases!
We also need to reform NASA on an institutional level, and give that reformed agency a bigger budget- a budget commensurate with a country that has a GDP of 13 Trillion dollars. Truth be told, I think that the government’s investment in Space Exploration should be quadrupled. As a percentage of GDP, the money IS there, and we could easily come up with the funds, given the VAST size of the federal budget, with even MINUSCULE cuts in the rate of entitlement spending growth , and by curtailing earmarks and blatant pork-barrel waste ( bridges to nowhere and woodstock museums ). HOWEVER, along with that funding increase, NASA DOES need to be re-focused, and re-organized. Also, we need to introduce some new paradigms into aspects of the system to better utilize the power of market-driven competition to drive progress, spur innovation, and to encourage the flow of private capital into the area of space exploration. Also, we need to invest in new launch technology in the same way that the government once invested in the railroads to open up the rest of the continent to commerce. I will detail some of my specific proposals in these areas below…
If it were up to me, I would divide the new up-sized NASA budget 4 ways. One Quarter of the new quadrupled budget ( the equivalent of the entire current budget ) would be focused solely on Orion, Ares, and on a ten-year plan for a manned mission to Mars. Un-manned science missions would also get a full quarter of the new budget money for probes, orbiters, and un-manned landers- with a large part of that budget focusing on finding suitable landing sites on Mars with frozen sub-surface water ice ( which would open the way for long-term colonization ), and on Robert Zubrin’s in-situ fuel production lander idea. I would green-light a major robotic mission to Europa ( currently canceled ), because it’s oceans probably have the best chance of harboring life of any place in our solar system outside of Earth. I would absolutely continue to fund ( and upgrade ) from this money, NASA’s fine array of space-born astronomical observatories- Chandra, Spitzer, and Hubble, as well as the soon-to-be-launched James Webb Space Telescope. I would also also make SIM and TPF ( Space Interferometer Mission and Terrestrial Planet Finder ) long-term priorities for the “Science Directorate” of NASA. The unmanned exploration sector within NASA has EARNED the right to be stewards of our hard-earned tax- dollars. Another quarter of Nasa’s new super-budget would go to the development of a totally new launch system, and I would administer that part of the budget in a totally new way.
The new “launch system” that I am referring to, is called “The Space Elevator”. It has the potential to change the fundamental paradigm of space exploration to such an extent that it may wind up being more historically significant to our species than even the Apollo program was. I really do believe that it deserves funding equivalent to the entire current NASA budget. The fact of the matter is that there is only so far we are going to go as a species with space-faring exploration and colonization with conventional chemical rockets. The cost of getting people and material into orbit on a per-pound basis by conventional means is a PERMANENT limiting factor to what is possible for mankind if another cheaper method is not found. People have needs here on earth, and governments have many responsibilities to their peoples. Health-care, the military, retirement, roads, schools etc…., etc… There is only so much money that will EVER be able to be allocated to the space program. The fact of the matter, is that the BULK of what is currently spent on space, is being wasted on propelling minuscule amounts of mass into orbit atop millions of gallons of propellant in insanely-expensive chemical rockets. Chemical rockets are an economic dead-end for space-exploration in the long-term. They have enabled us to take our first steps out into the great unknown, but they won’t allow us to take human presence in space to the next level for reasons of cost. Not only are chemical rockets cost-prohibitive for non-profit organizations like NASA, but they are even MORE prohibitive to space-based, for-profit business ventures like space-tourism. Since we must assume that the amount of money that governments can spend on space exploration will ALWAYS be limited as a percentage of budget, the ONLY possibility for a significant expansion of human presence in space is if the cost of launching mass-to-orbit is radically reduced. In this way, it can it become profitable for private industry to drive the next phase of human expansion into space. To make an analogy to another time in our history, the great expansion of the railroads that connected the east coast to the west coast, and the government’s investment IN those railroads, were only made possible by the fact that economic opportunities awaited at the end of the line. What SUSTAINED that rail infrastructure ( and later built the interstate highway system as well ) was the economic activity that UTILIZED the road and rail grid. The government has a vested interest now in developing a better mass-to-orbit system that will radically lower launch-costs and make it possible for profitable space tourism to grow and thrive. The impetus of capitalism,of market-driven competition,of private investment,and of consumer demand can bring to bear a VASTLY greater power and wealth upon the area of human space exploration than government spending will EVER be able to in the long-term. But there has to be something IN space that motivates people to want to go there, and there has to be a much cheaper and potentially profitable way for private companies to meet that consumer need. The primary reason for average people to ever want to go into space is to see the view. Plain and simple.There is no other compelling reason for most people to need, or want to go there, or for private industry to find a way to send them there. The primary economic engine, therefore, that will expand human presence in space will be tourism, and the lynch-pin that space tourism hangs upon is the development of a much cheaper mass-to-orbit system. That system is the Space Elevator, and quite frankly, I think that the development of that system should probably be NASA’s PRIMARY focus. It should be AT LEAST equal in terms of funding and in terms of priority, with every other thing that NASA does.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with the Space Elevator concept, I will give a brief description of what it entails, and a few links to more information. Basically, the idea of the space elevator can be likened to tying a ten pound weight to the end of a rope and swinging it in a circle. The centrifugal force of a weight attached to a spinning body ( in this case the earth itself ), holds the tether upright and rigidly in position between the weight and the spinning body. The critical component that was lacking in such a scheme, until fairly recently , was a material strong enough to bear the weight and stress loads required to permanently connect an orbiting object with the surface of the Earth. That structural material exists now. The strength-to -weight ratio of carbon nanotubes is sufficient to make a permanent space elevator an actual reality. From the standpoint of an observer on Earth, the space elevator would appear to be a thin, stationary, black ribbon stretching all the way from the ground to outer space. Of course, it would only appear to be stationary, as in reality, the earth would be spinning at many miles per second, as would be the elevator and the structure tied to it’s end.It’s just that it would seem stationary because we are also spinning at the same speed relative to it. A mechanical climber simply rides up and down the “elevator”, with none of the ridiculous costs and infrastructure associated with chemical rockets. Mass-to-orbit costs stand to be reduced a hundred-fold, and the first job of the first space elevator will be to lift up spools of carbon nanotube fibers containing the initial filaments of a hundred MORE space elevators. Many of these elevators will be financed by new businesses, and by a massive influx of venture capital that will be attracted to the new frontier by the now- potentially profitable space tourism industry. Indeed, ALL of the current industries that utilize chemical rockets for mass-to-orbit would find their costs greatly reduced, and capital /investment would flow to these sectors too. Cheaper mass-to-orbit also opens up possibilities for entirely new industries and technologies such as beamed power generation. The space elevator is the key that unlocks the gateway to the final frontier, and also to actual COLONIZATION of Mars, as opposed to just a few “plant-the-flag-and-look-around” missions.
Discover Magazine Article: “Going Up”
http://discovermagazine.com/2004/jul/cover
Wikipedia: The Space Elevator:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator
Also, I would spend Nasa’s entire Space Elevator budget under a new paradigm. It wouldn’t be an in-house operation at all. It would be along the lines of what DARPA ( Defense Advanced Research Projects Administration ) did with their open-to-the-public Autonomous Vehicle competition- only on a much grander scale. I would dole out the money as grants to approximately five companies that wanted to have a go at it, and have a 50 billion dollar “X-Prize” for the company that gets the first space elevator up and running. Let’s face it, government bureaucracy is the method of absolute last resort if you want innovation, efficiency, speed, and excellence. On the other hand, try dangling that kind of money in front of some lean, mean, greedy, hungry, profit-driven corporations, and you’ll have the elevator up before you can say Jack-and-the-Beanstalk.
My proposal for the final quarter of Nasa’s new budget would be to spend it on addressing another fundamental problem that is holding back human space exploration . I am talking about trying to do something unheard-of, and almost unimaginable, to recapture the daring spirit of Apollo again. We need to fire the imagination of a NEW generation! We need to capture the hopes, and the dreams of all the hard-working people out there whose tax dollars makes all of this stuff POSSIBLE! We need a bold, visionary goal- an audacious undertaking that is WORTHY of the attention, of the interest, and of the un-flagging support of the PEOPLE. We need a goal whose noble and lofty vision brings a tear to people’s eyes, and makes school-children lay awake at night in their beds thinking ” is such a thing REALLY possible?!”It should be like it USED to be, back in the early days of the Apollo program. I have an idea of what that goal could be. I think I know what undertaking would be truly worthy of NASA, and worthy of the yearning for brave EXPLORATION that lies at the core of what is BEST in the human spirit…
I propose that an American president should lay before the American people the idea of building a vast space-born optical interferometer. The purpose of which would be to answer two fundamental questions-
1.) Are we alone in the universe? …Does Life exist out there, and if so, is it simple or complex? Rare or prevalent?
2.) Is there another Earth? Are there many?… And are any of them close enough for us to consider what would be the greatest journey of all- going there. ( Via either a multi-generational colony-ship, or via a probe with genetic seed-material that could start a new branch of the tree of life in the universe.)
For those of you unfamiliar with the possibilities and potential capabilities of space-interferometers, I will briefly outline the idea, and provide a couple of links to more information. Basically, the idea of putting telescopes in space is based on the fact that they are above the atmosphere- which obstructs and distorts our view of distant heavenly bodies from Earth. The Hubble Space Telescope ( launched in 1997 ) is one of the most amazing accomplishments in the history of mankind, and just so you don’t have to take my word for it, I’ll include a link to some of the images that Hubble has given us, and let you see for yourself. Honestly, any words of mine would be totally unable to express the grandeur and majesty of what is out there anyways. Suffice it to say, that our view of the universe will never be the same. The Hubble deep field photographs boggle the mind. They are filled with millions and billions of tiny red, green , blue and pink smudges that fill up the HST’s entire view of the sky. Those tiny multi-colored pinwheels are galaxies. Each of them contains hundreds of billions of stars just like our own , and around those stars are circling billions – if not trillions- of planets. Some are inevitably going to be similar to own tiny blue marble that we call home. Statistically speaking, it’s a lead-pipe cinch that SOMEWHERE out there is a planet that is, for all intents and purposes, practically identical to Earth. Now consider for a moment that Hubble only has a lense two meters-wide. The principle of interferometers ( in space in this case ) is that it is possible to create a “vitual lense” equivalent to the diameter of a CONSTELLATION of movable telescopes placed at great distances from one another. Someday, it will be possible to create a telescope in space with the equivalent of a lense that is TENS OF THOUSANDS OF KILOMETERS wide. Think what we have seen with Hubble’s tiny lense, and then imagine what we would see with an interferometer of that size! We will look down on distant worlds- maybe even in other galaxies- with the same resolution that CIA spy-satelites currently use to read a car’s licence plate from space. We won’t need SETI to be randomly looking for patterns in interstellar radio signals anymore. We will simply look down on distant worlds in VISIBLE light wavelengths , and SEE if there are any designed structures indicative of complex life. We will also use gas spectroscopy to determine the exact composition of those planet’s atmospheres, and see whether or not there are un-natural combinations of gases which are incapable of forming apart from the presence of life and biological processes going forward. If life is out there, we will know. If we are alone, we will know that too. Darwinists claim that abiogenesis, the origin and evolution of species, the spontaneous creation of self-replicating information processors like DNA , the code that is written on that information processor, and the irreducible biological complexity that code translates into, are all NATURAL processes that merely require time and the right environmental conditions to occur. Intelligent Design advocates dispute that unproven claim and point to the problems of irreducible complexity, and of universal probability bounds in a finite universe, as proof that Design had a hand in creating complex, specified genetic information and interwoven, interdependent biological structures and processes that would never have come about by the “small, ,sucessive steps” required of Random Mutation and Natural Selection. The fact of the matter though, is that advocates for BOTH Answers to the “Big Question” can only point to a data-set of one. We currently only know of ONE place in the entire universe where life exists, and nobody has ever specifically explained, demonstrated, or duplicated the process by which that life came to be. If Darwinism is correct, then these natural processes must go forth on a trillion other worlds, and CERTAINLY the universe must be teeming with all manner of life- both simple and complex. Space interferometry will tell us if that is so or not. Objectively speaking, so far, SETI has laid a big fat goose egg, and the silence out there is deafening. Observational data so far has NOT supported that notion of complex life existing outside of this planet. Certainly SETI isn’t tuning into the bar-scene from Star Wars like it probably should be if Darwinism and purely naturalistic forces are solely capable of explaining life independent of design. But we’ll never really know the answer to the question of Life until we get out there and look for it. Personally, I think that the Fermi Paradox deserves to be resolved, and I want very much for us to actually get up there and SEE the truth. The space interferometer will show us that truth, and I believe I can HANDLE the truth- whatever it turns out to be. The Space Interferometer is a worthy goal – for our species and for our nation, and it is a perfect mission for NASA, as it it has no possibility of ever turning a profit. It’s a pure-scientific mission of exploration and discovery.
Wikipedia: NASA’s Space Interferometry Mission ( SIM )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Interferometry_Mission
NASA’s Long-Term Terrestrial Planet-Finder Plans:
http://origins.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/missions.html#pi
Hubble Images:
http://hubblesite.org/gallery/album
Wikipedia: The Hubble Space Telescope:
Http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope
My first essay on this blog adressed the potential impact that space interferometry will ultimately have on the question of life’s presence and prevolance in the universe. Personally, I think that data from the space interferometer will ultimately prove to be definitive on the matter. Here is a link to that essay. The ensuing comment-fest following that essay wound up being a spirited and informative debate on the whole Evolution versus Intelligent Design controversy. The link is included here for those interested in the subject, as well as a link to Dr. William Dembski’s Intelligent Design Weblog…
Evolution Versus Intelligent Design:
Dr. William Dembski’s Blog:
http://www.uncommondescent.com
I want to thank everybody out there reading this, for taking the time to consider my opinions and ideas. I realize that I tend to run a bit long, and that I am paragraphically challenged. I dont claim to know everything, or have all the answers, but I am pretty sure that the space program is currently not on the right track, and I hope I have thrown some ideas and alternatives on the table that are worthy of consideration by those interested in the matter. I do think that our long-term survival depends on us becoming a space-faring species. Remember, we have all of our eggs in one basket here. We are a teensy-weensy carbon-based life-form, with a very small foothold, on a very tiny blue speck of dirt and water, in a VERY large, cold, and un-caring universe. There have already been several ELE’s ( Extinction Level Events ) in our planet’s history, and statistically speaking, we are almost due for another one. Right now, even as we speak, there probably IS a rock flying though space at millions of miles per hour that the un-ending graviational waltz of heavenly bodies will eventually send our way – with potentially fatal consequences. That could be a thousand years from now, a million years from now, or tomorrow, but it’s probably coming. And perhaps the even greater threat is our own self-threatening tendencies as a species- our warlike tendencies, our hatreds, our inability to get along with one another. Combine those tendencies with advances in biotechnology and the potential production of bio-agents, super-viruses, and biological weapons of mass-destuction, and you have a human future that is NOT a sure-thing. If it turns out that we really ARE the only sentient beings in the universe, and anything ever DID happen to wipe us out as a species on this small planet orbiting a tiny yellow star, well… then that’s the proverbial ballgame isnt it? It’s something to think about….It probably IS worth establishing another branch of the human family tree elsewhere- just in case. At any rate, we don’t really seem to be currently on-track to achieve any kind of Human Destiny out there in the stars. I hope that changes, and soon. While my faith in a Human Destiny in space has not died or been shaken by the recent stagnation of the Space Program , my faith in the current caretakers OF that dream HAS died. I think it’s time to do as Sammy Hagar once said, and “Dream another Dream… this Dream is over.”
Suggested Links:
The definitive book on the current state of affairs at NASA… Lost in Space: The Fall of NASA and the Dream of a New Space Age by Greg Klerkx:
http://www.amazon.com/Lost-Space-Fall-NASA-Dream/dp/0375421505
Ward and Brownlee’s Rare Earth Hypothesis / the Fermi Paradox:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis
Books by Micheal Behe, ( arch-advocate for Intelligent Design and Irreducible Complexity):
http://www.amazon.com/Edge-Evolution-Search-Limits-Darwinism/dp/0743296206
http://www.amazon.com/Darwins-Black-Box-Biochemical-Challenge/dp/0743290313
Robert Zubrin: Author and arch-advocate of “Mars-Direct” plan:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Case_for_Mars
Carl Sagan’s vision of a Human Destiny in space:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale_Blue_Dot:_A_Vision_of_the_Human_Future_in_Space#Book_summary
The Encode Project… More bad news for Darwinism, and more evidence in support of Irreducible Complexity: “The picture that’s emerging of how living cells actually operate and evolve is so immensely more complicated than anyone imagined, it’s almost depressing”….”illness, health, and evolutionary change appear to be the work of an almost fantastical coordination between genes and swaths of DNA previously written off as junk”:
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/health_science/articles/2007/09/24/dna_unraveled/
The Apollo Program:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program
Orion and Ares, the sucessors to the Space Shutle:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_%28spacecraft%29
Shadow of the Moon movie:
http://www.intheshadowofthemoon.com
Nasa Budget:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Budget
The International Space Station:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS
The Space Shuttle:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_shuttle
“Men From Earth”, my favorite first-hand account of the true-life epic adventure that was the Apollo program. Written by my favorite astronaut, Buzz Aldrin:
Good post, Ty. Just to let you know, one of the major issues NASA is facing is EEE parts. Back in the ’60s, NASA was the main consumer of EEE parts, and could easily set their requirements. Now, they account for a minuscule fraction of EEE parts purchases, which means that very few manufacturers bother building things to space requirements (rad-hard, extended lifetime, -80 to +125ºC, etc.). Also, there’s a very short turnover before manufacturers stop supporting parts, and it isn’t easy to get stuff certified for space ops. (For example, the crew is still using IBM Thinkpads from the late ’90s. afaik, there are no other laptops certified for space ops.)
Some parts today are actually too small, which makes them too radiation-sensitive. Outside the Earth’s magnetosphere, that’s a HUGE issue. And don’t even get me started on tin whiskers.
All that means that NASA literally cannot repeat Apollo today. The parts just don’t exist. This is a huge obstacle that’s going to have to be overcome before we can get to Mars.
And I agree that a Moon base is not the best idea. I prefer the idea of a base at L4 or L5. I do think Constellation is moving in the right direction, though – instead of trying to have one vehicle that does everything, they’re developing a fleet of vehicles to cover our various needs (heavy lift, getting people to LEO, getting past LEO, maneuvering, etc.). That’s what should have been done immediately after Apollo.
David Brin said once that NASA’s greatest achievement is that they made going to the Moon boring. He has a point.
Dear Ty Harris, you probably are the most confusion character i have ever seen or heard of. Reading your essay completely undid whatever i thought i knew about space. Well, perhaps not the laws, thank god you’re not that dangerous!!!
Still, after viewing this h bomb of yours, i have thought and thought, and then thought some more again.
And, you know what? I still have’n a single reason why i did not see what was so blatantly obvious.
I live in london, so i must apologise afore word though a little to late, for butting into what is US private matters.
Secondly, i am sure you are aware that people here have not the same energy when it comes to matters of space travel, as the guys on the other side of the atlantic do.
I grew up in Africa, and though at a much later time than you,
i spent my childhood on the Star Trek series, and i must confess, i hated the original one with William Shatner and company. I would never miss a single episode, but i hated it.
I now realise that the main reason, for that was that the original series always made me feel and think of deep space as a claustrophobe would think of the inside of a coffin.
It is only with, the later versions that i learned to love and appreciate the entire thing.
And that is exactly what i thought about the US space program. Except in reverse, that is, of course. The old days, where great and all, but today was only bad because i was learning to appreciate something i couldn’t quite grasp yet that was wrong with the way things were being done down there. With time, things would get much better.
Then, you and your essay happened!
I am currently going into the aeorospace and astrophysics field of study, and except for the esa, the russian space agency, and the chinese space agency the only viable option is nasa. Yet, here you are telling me that the dream that was supposed to change the way humanity viewed existence itself, the object that was to kill wars and all other threats to our growth as a species is being choked to death by the very people who where meant to kindle this tiny ray of hope.
What’s worst, is you actually sound so right you.
So here it goes, one i don’t want believe you. You may be right, (certainly are right), but still won’t believe you.
Cause, one The US is the BIGGEST space travel investor, to lose faith in those who run things over at nasa would plain simply mean to turn off the ignition key to the boat and be bogged in dead waters. Two, regardless of what many sceptics may do or say, NO ONE, i repeat NO ONE, can ever stop the future. Did condemning Leornado Da Vinci’s works stop robots from coming? Did threatning Christopher Columbus of death stop the world from being round?
So those things were buried for centuries, that cannot, will not happen here. I mean, comm’on!! This is the 21st century, people read newspapers, journals, they watch the news.
I mean i didn’t see it, but i was young and rashfull, others would see it. Wright?? And they have to feel a minmum of consideration for those watching them wright?? Still the future is not wrightten in stone they say, anything can happen, and if the best that we can have is to Mars humanity a few decades from now, then i shall shed a tear to all those who deserved to see that day come to pass and didn’t, i shall die of envie for the children of tomorrow who shall witness all the wonders i shall never behold, and sleep perhaps better for the knowledge that humanity yet might have a chance no matter how small, and in the best of cases die a happier man for the priviledge of having had something to do with it.
PS. Thanks for warning me of what i must never allow people to think of me, and thanks for showing me the way to what shall be what i will always work towards.
Mrs. Peel-
What you are saying about parts procurement doesnt surprise me at all. It simply adds support to my thesis that NASA’s limitations are now self-imposed. NASA was able to do what it once did because the challenges it faced were merely technical. Wheras now, the primary obstacles to achievement are beaurocractic and procedural. This situation is truly intolerable! What good is NASA if it can’t do anything! If I am not mistaken, Buzz Aldrin has also been advocating for a permanent presence at the LaGrangian Points. That makes infinitly more sense than a Moon-base. Now… if we could only scrounge up some parts….
-Ty
Obsyeh Aden Ali-
God Bless You. I can tell that you have a dream in your heart, and a vision for the future. Maybe what the system needs is people like you working within it who can reform it and put it back on track. Personally, I think the current system is beyond reforming, and if I were you, I would be looking at what I could do working for privately-owned aerospace companies as opposed to working for NASA. But whatever course you take, just remember- the purpose for all your work is to make a dream a reality- not to spend 60 or 70 years tied up in red tape, beaurocracy, and dysfunctional procedures that dont accomplish anything. If you do ever work for NASA, ESA etc, I hope you are a goals-oriented doer and a systemic reformer, not a slave to a pointless process.
As for NASA’s Manned Space Program- as it currently stands, it is beyond hope- but maybe new leadership will bring new hope. When NASA rolled-out it’s ridiculous plans for the next 50 years a few years back, Senator John McCain openly mocked them. If he – or somebody like him-becomes president, they may well cancel the whole moon-base thing and get us back on track for a direct path to Mars. I hope so.
But even if NASA is left to it’s own devices and manages to screw up manned exploration for the next 50 years, there are still plenty of other things – very worthy things- for you to hope for, and to be a part of there. For one thing, unmanned space exploration is on a much more promising path. The James Webb Space Telescope will be launched soon- which will have major implications for the search for life outside of earth, and there will be predecessors to THAT telescope as well, within your lifetime, which should be able to direct-image earth-sized extra-solar planets and do spectroscopy of their atmospheres using the “transit ” method. What an exciting time to be involved in astronomy or astrobiology! Flying space-craft in constellation formation will be a key technolgy, and maybe something to be involved in as a career. Also, there will plenty of landers and probes, and un-manned missions to places like Europa’s oceans which should be very exciting. If I was you, and I was getting into something space-related, I would probably be shifting my career aspirations into unmanned exploration, and I would be especially interested in Astronomy / Space-based constellation-type interferometers.
I think that regardless of what NASA does, and how slow they do it, the REAL key to unlocking the final frontier lies in the development of a much cheaper mass-to-orbit system. Chemical rockets permanently limit what is possible for us as a species for economic reasons. If I were your age, and I wanted to dedicate myself to the dream of making humans a permanent space-faring species, I would get into the field of materials-engineering. The space-elevator is going to become a reality someday, and probably within your lifetime. The future of spaceflight depends on it. And once we master that technology, everything changes.
When the costs drop to the point where space-tourism becomes feasible financially as a result of the cheaper mass-to-orbit, then the REAL work of your generation can get started- not by slow, plodding government agencies, but by the REAL engines of human progress- companies competing in the marketplace to earn a dollar and to provide a service to consumers. Many, many of those elevators will go up, and many, many spaceborne structures will be built – orbiting hotels, and maybe even beamed power generation facilities. They will be built and operated by private aerospace companies and profit-driven corporations- not by NASA. They will need people like you. I will make this prediction- the first space elevator won’t be put up by NASA. It will be put up by a company in the private sector- By somebody like Virgin Galactic. It’s people like Richard Branson and Burt Rutaan who will lead the human race into the next great era of space exploration- not NASA or ESA. Those bold, pioneering companies will need engineers, my friend.
I am no longer pinning my hopes on NASA. The Chinese will get humans back to the moon long before NASA- in it’s current hopeless, pointless state- ever does, and NASA will NEVER get us to Mars unless the whole agency and it’s mission is radically and fundamentally reformed. It’s time to dream another dream, because that dream is over. But that’s just my opinion, and as you say- the future is not written. It will be written by you. Whatever path you take, I wish you the best. I really hope you will let me know what your journey is like, and that you will keep me up-dated on what you are doing. I am very interested!
Obsyeh-
You mentioned that your interests also include physics. Did you happen to hear about Garret Lisi’s recently-published Grand Unified Theory of Physics- ” An Ecceptionally Simple Theory of Everything”? If you havent heard about it, you should type his name into google and read about his very exciting work. He has apparently tied all the forces and particles that exist in nature into a 248 point mathematical structure called the ” E8″. He has used his model to predict new particles that relate to gravity, and that should be confirmed or disproved by the Large Hadron Collider in Switzerland soon.
Who knows what implications fundamental research into gravometric particles could have long-term for the human race or even for space-travel. There may be a whole new field of science opening up – gravity engineering. The implications are unknown- anti-gravity? Warp-drive capability? Who knows. Lisi’s theories open up a whole new can of worms, and if I were young and good at math ( I am neither), and if the E8 model was proven to be accurate, then particle physics and gravity research would be a career path that would really interest me. At any rate, Lisi’s theories about the E8 structure are very interesting reading, and I thought I would mention them to you.- Ty
Thanks, for the advice Ty i Shall consider it very carefully.
About Garret Lisi, googled him but found only bits here and there, i’ll get the book though, i needed new reading materials anyway.
Do you ever consider that when Arthur C. Clark penned his novel “Fountains of Paradise” he ever thought people would be considering it “the solution to all of humanity’s ails” in future generations?
Actually when asked the question wether the space elevator would ever be built, he answered laughing “probably 50 years after evryone stopped laughing”.
Still, though this might seem to you incredibly funny, i too considered the space elevator as the answer to all our problems, until i read on the nasa official website that they did not excpect the technology to be operational until the end of the century. Is the carbon nanotube technology not the most important issue here? It has been solved, they do exist.
Yet we still talk of an end of the century deadline.
So i decided that if important and clever people did not deem it possible, perhaps my understanding of the matter was not what it should be, and forgot all about it.
I shall from now on focuse a large portion of my time on understanding every bit of the technology necessary to the space elevators, and the maths and physics involved.
If by the time i’m done with my studies they’re not up and running, i shall throw myself in the hole thing until i’m either pennyless, dying or dead!!!
As of for the components parts Mrs Peel and you are discussing, it seems to me that the only reason the various companies are no longer building them is nasa’s ceasing to buy them. One thing i have learned is that all technologies have multiple functions, ALL of them. All nasa needs do is find a market, albeit a small one since the given components shall be expensive, but enough for the companies to keep making them. That way the us government gets more taxes, more jobs for you guys, and whenever nasa needs to use the components the technologies are there for them to have it within very short span of time. Everyone happy??
Still, i do not think that those who managed, the man who said ” one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind”, would have let themselves be bogged by a “shortage of components issue”.
However, no matter how hard i think and consider the present situation, i always comme back to the same conclusion.
Those were the days of the cold war.
In times of war only the best may enter the hall of a nation last line of defense.
It is only sad that the best of what we humans may achieve must happen in times of crisis and the pending doom of extinction only.
So , the US you say my dear Ty, shall not always have the money to run nasa?
Nor should it, i think both russia, the us and europe have furthered this cause for long enough. It is time for the rest of the world to play its part.
I here in the TY HARRIS fashion propose a vision.
Let us make nasa, esa, rsa, the chinese space agency part of an overall agency, a world agency in the fashion of the united nations. Belonging to none and to all, and led by a tradition of
merit contract to private aeorospace companies, just like you suggested for nasa alone. Nasa and all the others would of course maintain their own personal independance from this mother agency as countries now do the un.
Since it is a merit based contract, the whole business of nasa being ruled by bureaucrats as you say would simply die. No achievemed targets within the given parameters, no money.
Nothing like international concurrency with the chinese and other “bad ass dudes”!!!
Should keep everyone on their toes. should’nt it?
It will also kill any future discussion about space weaponry of any kind.
There you have it, the beginings of what is and could be the space federation right there.
By the way, what do you think of the Orion project?
And the russian version of it?
I, now that you have turned my understanding of things upside down, know that the ISS is a debacle and waste of money, but could the two nations not collaborate on a new version of the beasts? Minus the whole armageddon armada that is.
ps. One never has enough friends. I shall be more than happy to keep you updated on the boring details of my fastidious development. Thanks for asking, and thanks for the advice again.
Obsyeh-
Wow! You really inspire me with your talk about throwing everything you have into the Space Elevator if you find it to be potentially feasible. It’s that kind of commitment that ultimately makes dreams become a reality. It’s people like Thomas Edison, Henry Ford, and Werner Von Braun who didnt give a rat’s ass what anybody else thought. They saw that something was possible, and they would not be denied! Your first reading on the subject should probably be Brad Edward’s book ( called “The Space Elevator” ). It’s the best treatise on the subject that I have read so far. It’s available on Amazon I think, although I got lucky and found a copy at my local Barnes and Noble or Borders- I forget which.
It’s really a pleasure to meet somebody who is as excited about the idea as I am. Of course there will be technical challenges- that’s where people like you come in. If it was easy, George W. Bush would just build it out of Pixie Sticks… What is easy that is worth doing ?
The critical missing component that made the idea science fiction once upon a time, was finding a material that can bear it’s own weight on such a scale. As you say, carbon nanotubes have supplied that critical component. The rest is all details. It is possible, and as as a general rule- when something is POSSIBLE, sooner or later somebody will do it. It’s only a question of time, and commitment. It WILL happen. People laughed when Jules Verne wrote about men flying to the moon too.
You arent the first person to note the connection between militarism and scientific advancement. It’s sad , but true. The age-old struggle for survival and for supremacy over our fellow-man has had a wonderful way of sharpening the focus and harnessing the energies of human beings down through the centuries. Such is our nature I suppose. Apollo probably would have never happened if it hadnt been for the cold war, and the Manhattan Project probably never would have happened either, were it not for the military’s desire to build a terrible new weapon capable of blowing our enemies to kingdom-come in a new and spectacular manner. Probably the two most impressive things humans have done, have therefore been done- at least partially- for all the wrong reasons. No doubt, if we had some current fearsome adversary or military imperative to give focus to our current efforts in the area of manned space exploration, we would plant the American Flag on Olympus Mons in 10 years or less. If Al Queada would only declare it’s intention to go to Mars, George W. Bush and Dick Cheny would have us there before the 2008 Elections probably. The lack of any real current military imperative for manned space exploration is just one more reason why NASA – as a government agency- just isnt focused enough to do the job in my opinion. That’s why the marketplace, and profit-based competition is needed to drive the next great era of space exploration…
As far as the “next century” estimate goes, remember that these are the people who plan on returning us to the moon 60 years after the Apollo astronauts first went there- and it’s doubtful they will even achieve that on time. If we did everything on NASA’s timetable, we’d be on year one of a 40 year plan to phase out dot-matrix printers- but first we would need to build a printer-factory on the moon, and master in-orbit assembly with next-generation printer-fabrication technology based on cold-fusion . To hell with thes idiots! I say the US government should just put out a 40 billion dollar X-prize for the first company that puts up a space elevator. I bet you my 96 Hyundai and cup of coffee that for less than we spend pounding the hell out of the Taliban in a single month, the Space elevator would be up in ten years or less. Care to take my bet?
Don’t worry about boring me with the details of your “fastidious development”. I’m interested.
As for the Orion project- I’m all for it. It should have been the next logical step after Apollo anyways. A big, heavy – throw booster that can launch pre-built Mars-Mission components direct into orbit where all we need to do is rendevouz, point it in the right direction, and light the rockets. It’s about time! Why did we need to spend 40 years,and a trillion bucks on the Space Shuttle and the ISS first? ( and now moon bases!? ) I’m not familiar with the russian equivilant, but I must say that the Russians have some good common sense, and are very capable of building reliable, practical work-horse space vehicles. In fact, if it wasnt for the russians, we’d have no way to resupply the ISS right now!
Incidentally, the last time I was in Houston, I went to Johnson Space Center and saw a Saturn V booster that they have laying on it’s side in a gigantic hangar. It may well be the most impressive thing I have ever seen. If you ever make it to the US, do yourself a favor and go see it. Also, they have a rusty, rickety, old redstone rocket sitting outside the hanger similiar to what they launched John Glenn into orbit on. It looks like something I could build in my garage, and I wouldnt have strapped myself to that peice of junk for any amount of money. The Saturn V though- or the Orion- I would gladly ride into orbit today. I good, big, simple, reliable heavy-throw booster is EXACTLY what NASA needs!
Your thoughts on a worldwide pooling of resources as a way of maximizing humanity’s potential in space is right on. I’m with you 100%. Obviously, we are stronger together than we are apart. Someday- long after you and I are gone- humanity will reach some kind of consensus on the things we fight over currently and we can spend all of the money that we spend on war and military equipment, on science and on finding out what we are ultimately capable of as a species. In the meantime, I am ready and willing to merge NASA with ESA and RSA right now, today. Why not? It’s a win-win scenario for everybody right?
The link for Lisi is:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,311952,00.html
There is a link from that story to a youtube video of the E8 structure that will blow your mind…
I have some Al Qaeda ties, i’m sure i could convice them a video or two on their intent to arrange a terrorist attack upon the evil western world from Mars is in preparation.
If the pots refuse, i can always fake one, plenty of good
website designers friends.
My brother lives up in seattle, i was looking for an exuse to visit thanks for giving me one.
Saw lisi’s video and pictures cool dude. Like the shades.
The theory sounds a little high for my level but i’m sure once i’ve read the book through i’ll have a better understanding.
If you want to find out more about how the tovarishs expected to win space warfare, trie and find a site comparing the orion to their version. I saw one back in the days couldn’t find it anymore though and i don’t have time to right now, but i’m certain you could if you find the time.
I’m sure you agree that though the private sector is going to be vital to the colonisation of space, leaving either nasa or any other space governmental body out of it, could be a tragic mistake. Think of what happen with enron in california. Someone must be held responsible, for any tragic issues that may ever arise. Someone the american public can hold reliable. Remember, deep space is the most forbidding place that could ever possibly exist. That is why giving up on nasa will never be an option. In time, it may be it and others like it that will maintain the standards for any space inhabitation. We must think as carefull and realistic adults and not launch into anything hastily. The devildaycare attitude is fine for people like the apollo crews, it is fine for those who work for nasa today, and i even agree that this play it safe attitude of theirs now wasted countless amount of us tax payers hard earned cash down the drains, and more pricelessly the time of those us taxpayers who deserved better than to be told, “back to where we were 50 years ago in a decade and half, people! Hurray! But such thinking is not the way civilians can or ever should reach deep space.
I suppose that you have reached such thoughts on the subject is no more than another proof on the desparate state of affairs.
As for the whole what we spend on the taliban business, though i usually do not agree with us foreign policy, the taliban was a present threat, if not to others to the very people it purposed to protect.
Im sure you agree living in world where one says women may not have the right to write or read is not an option.
Islam never said that, you may ask me, i’m sure you guessed from my surname.
“All it takes for evil to prevail, is for good men to do nothing”.
Not that i am saying anyone should waste your hard earned cash on bombing anyone else but if the best that can be done is to have anyone do the right thing for all the wrong reasons, then that is better than nothing. The sooner the world can reach a consensus the sooner many of the problems facing people like you and me may be overcome.
Then we’ll put you in charge of dealing with all those patethic bureaucratic whelps!!!
Call that a bet?? Ha! Find yourself another victim!!
Thanks again for asking. But there is’nt that much to tell. I’m applying at the moment for an Aeorospace engineering and Astraunautics course at Queen Mary’s University. The syllabus sounds heartbreakingly good,
gives me bloody goosebumps all over. But you know faculties and their prospectus’s. I guess i’ll have to talk to you in a couple years time.
Good GOD, i hope you are as wrong about worldwide consensus being reached’s timeline as nasa has been about so many other things.
And about orion, although i hate the idea of launching nuclear reactors into the atmosphere, i would in a heartbeat, if i knew of a safe way. Which i would love to hear back on you.
On the passing is this Swiss experiment you all keep talking about, with the e8 lisi theory and the rest, not the one costing 5 billions dollars, two massive rotating wheels in opposite direction, 10 000 computers, powered by 5 nuclear reactors. Was that not ages ago, has it not started yet???
Also, tell me more about the lagragian points you and Mrs Peel are discusing, and why nasa does not wish to consider it (unofficial reasons of course), Mrs Peel too whilst i’m at it she seems to now a lot about it.
Lastly, have you ever heard of the buzzard ramjet theory. I have always considered that one as an option to get us to Alpha Centaury, or at least up to the Kyper Belt. Get back to me on that and the rest.
Ps.I already saw the saturn v5 booster on tv, but i bet you majesty is for the eye of the beholder!!! See you there when i get there!!
Dear Ty, sorry if i hit a sore spot with all my joking about al qaeda and all. It was a bad joke i guess and a little too soon at that. And in case you’re an anti war activist, well amy whatever hope of whatever one may call a minimum of peace reach the afghan people god knows they deserve it. I suppose i should stay clear of any kind of political statements from now on. Best of luck to you.
Obsyeh-
Hi- My friend, don’t worry, I wasnt offended at all by your al quaeda / taliban jokes. I didnt respond sooner because I am using the internet at the local library, and so I just wasnt able to check comments yesterday. My statement about building the space elevator for the cost of what we spend bombing the taliban was not meant to imply that we shouldnt be bombing the taliban. I’m glad we are bombing the taliban- the more bombs the better! My point was this- when you compare 40 billion bucks for a space elevator “X-prize” to the vast size of the federal budget, to the amount of money we spend on all manner of things, and to the size of the US Gross Domestic Product, it’s well within our capability to spend a few billion dollars on a cheaper mass-to-orbit system like the space elevator that could change everything for our species.
I could have used many other examples besides bombing the taliban, and probably should have. I wasnt saying that we should reduce military spending at all. In fact, if you check out the comment section of an essay I wrote called ” the most worthless generation” ( which got quite a strong response from the anti-war crowd ), you will find that I am a pro-war, neo-con, and that I frequently argue with anti-war types online in favor of a stronger US stance against radical islam. I believe that religions- including islam- should have to peacefully co-exist with other religions within the framework of a secular government, and that they should not be able to force people to worship or live in a particular way. The problem I have with Islam is that so many of it’s adherants seem determined to kill anybody who DOESNT want to worship or live under sharia law, and they seem to think that they have the right to force others to submit to their opressive belief system. I especially hate the way they treat women, and I think that the money we spend in Afgahnistan is the best thing our government does. I hate the Taliban, I hate Al Quaeda, and I even voted for George W. Bush twice ( even though he’s an idiot ) because I knew I could count on him to drop bombs on all of the Jihadist whack-jobs out there in the world who need bombs dropped on them. ( He hasnt let me down )
So- don’t worry- I love talking about world affairs, and politics. I wont be offended at all if your opinions are different than mine either.
We’ll have to agree to disagree on NASA’s role in manned space exploration. It’s clear that you have more faith in them than I do. I used to be NASA’s biggest fan, based primarily on what theyve done in the past, but at some point, as the years and decades have gone by, I had to start asking some questions about why we havent left earth orbit in 40 years despite having spent half a trillion bucks. The new plan that Bush and NASA rolled out a few years ago that has us basically repeating the entire apollo program for no real purpose was just the final straw that pushed me into the ranks of the cynical non-believers. At this point, I would support giving NASA’s entire budget to Burt Rutaan and seeing what he could do with it.
On the subject of Orion, I think we are talking about two different things. I know that Orion was the term for the experimental Nuclear Thermal Propulsion thing that NASA was working on. I dont really support it because it’s just one more thing that we DONT need to do to get to MARS- which should have been the next logical step after Apollo. The space shuttle, the ISS, and Nuclear Thermal Propulsion are all needless steps right now. The Orion I was referring to is the new crew exploration vehicle that will sit atop the new ARES booster. Ares ( not orion- sorry for the mistake ) is the new heavy-throw booster that NASA is developing to get us out of orbit again and on our way to the Mars ( by way of the moon for some unknown reason ).That is the Orion I support fully.
I have to go becuase the library is closing!
Sorry, I didn’t read it all, but I liked what I read so far. I liked the bit about how it doesn’t seem to be inspired now. I guess the reality is disappointing, that we can’t just go to other planets outside the solar system.
You were talking about how it was to do with what the nation can do, I like that. Nowadays, it should be what people as a whole can do–instead of the americans, russians, chinese, and whoever else, they should work together and share the costs and share ideas.
Chiya- Hi- you are absolutely right. The efforts and resources of the various nations and space-agencies would be more effective if they were joined. They are doing that -to a large extent- with the International Space Station. The only problem is that the ISS itself seems to serve very little purpose. I poked around your blog a bit, and you seem to be a bit disheartened about the future of space exploration, and about studying aerodynamics etc. Dont’ be dismayed! Finish the essay and consider the positive possibilities. The best is yet to come! We are in a difficult transitional period now where we are running up against the limits of what government-funded and government-managed space programs can realistically accomplish for budgetary reasons. A Grand New Era of Space Exploratrion is right around the corner, but we are going to have to implement a cheaper and safer mass-to-orbit system, and we are going to have to transition from a primarily government-funded program that CONSUMES wealth, to a profit-driven, privately managed system that GENERATES wealth. It all hinges on the Space Elevator and through it, Space Tourism. In the next 50 years- maybe sooner, that Elevator IS going to be built, and when it goes up, the the first things that are going to go up it, will be the central tethers for 20 MORE space elevators. Everything is going to change. Costs will plummet, earth-orbit will become the planet’s number-one tourist destination, and humans will begin establishing a permanent and signifigant presence in space using the power of consumer-demand and for-profit-based entrepeneurial ventures. If the costs of getting mass-to-orbit drop by 90% as a result of the space elevator, an entirely new beamed-power energy production industry may come about that eventually has the amount of capital and infrastructure in space, that the oil companies now boast here on the ground. If you want to be on the cutting-edge of what is to come, consider getting into the field of materials sciences like carbon fiber and carbon nano-tubes. It’s easy to get depressed about the situation sometimes, but sooner or later our species will find the right technological and economic engine to drive the next era of exploration. Apollo was just the beginning! Great things are coming!!!
Good luck, and be careful with those Axels- Ty
Ok 🙂 I think I’ve been reading too much of the space cynics blog. (I’m starting to get more interested in space now that I’m not considering actually doing it.)
That makes sense, what you’re saying about space tourism and how as soon as the cost gets lower they will make money. If the cost was low enough I’m pretty sure I’d want to go, and probably a bunch of people I know would too.
Anyway thanks for replying to my comment, and commenting on my blog 🙂 I’ll make sure my sister is careful with her double axels. (I’m not skating now)
I loved Star Trek too and I always thought that photo essay (from Star Trek Enterprise) was great for telling how far we’ve come and going
Looking forward to next year’s Star Trek reboot
What a shame you were not a part of the Saturn program as I was back then. Based on your comments you lack the knowledge of where we where and how far we have come. I worked on the Saturn program, long before the development of the IC and microchips, and etc. It was a challange just to prove what America could do, and we did it. We went to the moon and back based on miminal knowledge of what we could do, hope was a major part of what we did. But never the less we did it. Try turning your TV off and see what you can contribute to your future. Unless you lack the nerve.
Not sure what your beef is with me Fisherman. If you read my stuff, you will see that my problem is with NASA’s POST-apollo activities in the area of manned exploration- not with the excellent, ballsy work you steely-eyed missile men did… I think the Saturn V was the best thing since sliced bread, and I give you nothing but respect for working on it. I just think that we’ve lost our way since those days. I dont think we ever should have canceled the Saturn. It was a fantastic heavy-throw booster that could have been- and should have been- the basis for a manned mars program to follow-up on Apollo. As far as “how far we’ve come” since we canceled Apollo, that’s exactly my point- we’ve gone NOWHERE. Men havent left orbit in 40 years. We’ve been puttering around and not GOING anywhere. Again- I give nothing but respect to YOUR generation of bold pioneers. My problem is with MY generation fooling around in orbit for 40 years. we pulled back, and instead, I want us to venture out. I want us going out where you guys were willing to go on a wing and a prayer. I want that boldness for us too!